Key Developments in the 2026 Middle East Economy thumbnail

Key Developments in the 2026 Middle East Economy

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1 GCC, "HE GCCSG: The FTA between the GCC and the UK is a Significant Strategic Opportunity to Raise Economic Relations to New Horizons," October 20252 GCC, "Joint Declaration on Economic Cooperation In Between the Association of the Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)," May 2025 3 IMEC, "India-Middle East-Europe Economic Passage (IMEC) Progress Update," April 20254 WAM, "UAE's CEPA program enhances worldwide financial ties with 26 strategic agreements," March 20255 Muscat Daily, "Oman, India set to sign free trade pact 'extremely quickly'," September 20256 India Embassy Qatar, "India-Qatar Bilateral Relations," June 20257 Reuters, "Qatar's QIA prepares to at least double annual US financial investments over next years," May 2025; WAM, "US$ 110 billion in UAE financial investments in Africa position nation as world's fourth-largest investor," October 2025; Whitehouse, "Fact Sheet: President Donald J.

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Strategic Strategy for Regional Success

Overall properties held broadly stable over the quarter, while trading levels pointed to continued rearranging and as a response to geopolitical news rather than a significant brand-new capital implementation. Global macro conditions set a challenging background.

The GCC ETF universe comprised 39 ETFs with a total AUM of $9.35 billion (as of Q1 2026). Efficiency across the market was broadly unfavorable, with just 13 ETFs providing favorable returns compared to 26 in decrease. In general, the data shows a market that is active however narrow, with capital and liquidity concentrated in a little subset of items.

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Performance in Q1 2026 was driven by a narrow group of idiosyncratic winners, instead of broad market strength. The leading ETFs were focused in specific country direct exposures and commodities, particularly Turkey, Saudi petrochemicals, gold, and Egypt. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt were durable throughout the quarter. Saudi Arabia's oil direct exposure supported its local market, with Aramco reaching brand-new highs in the middle of greater oil prices, in addition to its continued ability to export oil through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which remains open.

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Egypt provided strong performance in January and February. Regardless of a market pullback in March due to the war, both Egypt's market and its ETFs still posted positive returns for the quarter. The continuous Middle East dispute and resulting energy shock have actually reshaped the outlook for emerging market equities in between the oil-haves and the oil-have-nots.

The sector likewise dealt with broader macro headwinds, including a more cautious policy background in China and global risk-off belief driven by geopolitical stress and greater energy prices. Thematic ETFs Struggled for the many part, particularly those connected to carbon and high-growth technology, as appraisal pressures and global rate dynamics weighed on efficiency.

The petrochemical ETF substantially outshined. Circulations in Q1 2026 were modest and highly concentrated, reflecting selective allowance instead of broad market involvement. Regardless of weak performance, ETFs taped $27.1 million in net inflows, with just a small number of products attracting new capital. This suggests that financiers were targeting particular direct exposures, while lowering or rotating out of others.

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Advanced Strategy for GCC Leadership

Trading activity remained steady, with average 30-day volumes around 33,000 shares, focused in a handful of larger and more liquid ETFs. Many activity appears to have actually occurred in the secondary market, making it possible for investors to change positions without significant main productions or redemptions. While recent geopolitical events have actually resulted in more monetary pressure on GCC countries, the area stays resistant and well capitalized to deal with the circumstance.

In January, Boreas introduced its S&P Global High-end UCITS ETF, adding a niche thematic exposure focused on global luxury and consumer brand names. ETFs by the CMA for cross-listing on ADX.

Q1 2026 revealed some development connecting to ETFs in the GCC. We anticipate more global and thematic ETFs to list in the GCC throughout 2026. While the conflict has impacted sentiment and prices throughout the quarter, it has actually driven more volume and interest in local possessions.

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Regardless of ongoing geopolitical stress and security dangers throughout the Middle East, the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have actually continued to show resilience, keeping positive development momentum in current years. While disputes in the broader region and international economic uncertainty stay a structural restriction, GCC countries have actually so far restricted their impact on domestic financial performance through strong financial positions, policy connection, and sustained financial investment.