Navigating the 2026 Middle East Business Landscape

Instead of marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is progressively seen as a combination year, in which diversification-led development ends up being more deeply ingrained in the region's financial design, reducing dependence on hydrocarbons and increasing strength to external shocks. Projections from significant institutions broadly converge on a stronger GCC development profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by durable domestic demand, continued non-oil expansion, and (to differing degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

3.2 percent growth in 2025, accelerating to 4.5 percent in 2026. Sees momentum improving, with GCC output development predicted to rise from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, showing a shift toward more positive overall conditions.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) tasks global development reducing to 3.1 percent in 2026, with innovative economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and establishing economies simply above 4 percent. On that comparison, a 4.44.5 percent GCC expansion would position the region materially ahead of the world average and a little above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, strengthening the GCC's status as a relatively high-growth pocketprovided that local threat conditions remain contained and reform momentum holds.

Information from the GCC Statistical Center reveal that non-oil sectors currently represent more than 73 percent of total GDP, a share that has continued to rise as governments expand financial investment in services, facilities, and innovation. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity across the GCC is projected to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, improving credit conditions, and increasing investment in innovation and AI-related facilities.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Operational Excellence: a Key Pillar for 2026 Growth

Public-sector investment and reform remain main to sustaining this trend. Policy procedures aimed at attracting foreign direct investment, alleviating foreign ownership guidelines, broadening capital markets, and supporting private-sector involvement continue to underpin non-oil growth and minimize the region's direct exposure to oil price volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer dominate the growth outlook, oil profits are anticipated to play an encouraging role in 2026.

Oxford Economics expects Brent crude prices to fall listed below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, limiting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. Oil supply is forecast to rise again in the second half of the year, with a full relaxing of staying production caps most likely by mid-2027.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Macroeconomic conditions across the GCC stay broadly supportive of development. Inflation is expected to stay low, with the IMF forecasting average inflation of 2 percent across the area in 2026. Steady rates are assisting protect real household incomes and underpin consumer costs, which Oxford Economics anticipates to grow by an average of 3.5 percent over 20262027.